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Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Population Characteristics -III

3.                 Mortality
In a given population, mortality can be defined as the rate of organism’s deaths.
Mortality is majorly categorized into two types:

a.                 Minimum mortality
Under idealistic condition, the death rate is termed as Minimum or Theoretical mortality. It’s a constant component of population statistical factors. Under ideal conditions also organism dies because of natural process of senescence or ageing.
b.                Realized mortality
Under realistic or non idealistic conditions, the rate of death is defined as Realized or ecological mortality. It varies with the prevailing conditions of population and environment, eg. epidemic, predation etc.
Mortality generally expressed as death rate at a given time difference is the number of deaths divided by average population. For instance at the beginning of the time 400 people constitute the population size but at the end of time period only 350 people are alive, means total 50 are dead. Thus, the average size of population is 400+350/2= 375 and the death rate will be 50/375=0.133
Death rate=Dead people/ Average population
To calculate the probability of people dying divided the “dead people” at a given time with the alive people present at the beginning of time intervals. For example by assuming above data, probability of dying= 500/400=0.125. Probability of dying is complementary to probability of surviving given by = 350/400=0.875 i.e. people alive at a given time divided by population size at the beginning of time interval. Here, we do not consider average population size as in case of calculated death rate.

Life Expectancy
An average number of years a member of a given age is expected to live in future in a population define Life expectancy.
In 1921, under laboratory conditions, Raymond Pearl was the first who introduced and used life table for Drosophila population.
Life stable is a set of records of mortality and survival at a given time intervals in a population. It gives a systematic order to population characteristics recorded overtime varying with size, developmental stages and with age. Ecologist found the applicability of life table in natural population for understanding the cause and pattern of mortality and predicting the possibility of survival and future growth of population. A life table describes an age specific mortality aspects of people and represented in a form of subsequent columns.
Cohort” is group of people born at the same time. It’s the life expectancy and reproductive rate on which the increase or decrease in population size depend on. Reproductive rate specially depends on the female age at which she starts producing young one and also possible age of female to which she can reproduce in future.
Applications of life tables
1.     The rate of premium by life insurance companies was determined by using life tables to determine the possibility of client survivorship.
2.     Life tables are used to predict wildlife population growth decline and management.
3.     Conservation biologists use life tables in species conservation.
4.     Comparing the life history trends within and between populations.

Three types of life stable are there:
1.                 Cohort/ Horizontal/Dynamic life tables
Use of this life tables is for short lived species and short generation time. This table records the survival and reproduction of cohort of individuals from birth to death. Cohort is group of individuals born and hatched together during a defined time interval. Dynamic/ Cohort life tables start with 1000 initial members of cohort and they are followed till the population is exhausted.
Cohort can be defined on daily, weekly, monthly or annual basis such as Ursus americanus, all black bear cubs born in Ozarks in 2014. The cohort life table record two important aspects (A) fecundity schedules and (B) survivorship schedules.

2.                 Static/ Vertical/Time specific life tables
Static life table is based on assumption that the population is stable and the Natality and mortality fecundity rate etc characteristic of population are constant too. It measure all the individuals each age and reproduction in a population and ages at death. In short, all living members of each age counted at a given time.

3.                 Dynamic composite life tables
In 1986, Begon and Mortimur define this form of life table. It is similar to cohort life table but here the members of cohort are counted on annual basis rather than birth timings. It’s a time specific technique allowing natural variability in survival rates.
Life tables whether static or cohort if classified the members on age basis are termed as age based life tables. Representation of age is by “x” and age specific life expectancy as “ex” for each age. Life tables classifying the members on the basis of size and developmental stages are termed as size-based life tables and stage based life tables respectively.

To determine ecological life tables, the following type of data have been used:
1.                 Laboratory animals
Laboratory animals are used to prepare life tables as their specific stages are known to us. We observe the number of animals/members at regular intervals and record their death arte till the population dies off.

2.                 Direct observation of Survivorship
In 1961, Connell constructed life table of Chthamalus stellatus growing on rocks in autumn season in Scotland. He observed and recorded the mortality at regular intervals. Hence, survival data of cohort at regular intervals were followed till its existence.

3.                 Direct observation of Age structure
By observing several physiological features of individual, the age structure information can be observed. For example observation of the annular rings on fish scales, horns of sheep, growth rings in trees etc. Although, this type of data is not preferred for table construction yet some age structure ecological information can be collected.

Table 1: Different columns of life table are:
S. no
Abbreviation
Meaning
1
x
Age interval
2
nx
Number of survivors at start of age interval x
3
lx
Proportion of organisms surviving to start age interval x
4
dx
Number dying during age interval x to x+1
5
qx
Rate of mortality during age interval x to x+1
6
Lx
Average number of live individuals during age interval x to x+1
7
Tx
Total years lived by individuals of age x
8
ex
Life expectancy for individuals alive at age x


Table 2: Life table of Baranus glandula (Barnacle) on pile points at the upper shore levels, San Juan Island, Washington (Connell 1970).
Age (yr)
 (x)

Observed No. Barnacles Alive Each Year
(nx)
Proportion Surviving at start of age interval x
(lx)
No. dying within age interval x to x+1
(dx)
Range of mortality

(qx)
Average Live individuals within age interval x to x+1
(Lx)
Total years lived by individual of age x (Tx)
Mean expectation of further life for animals alive at start of age x (Tx/lx=ex)
0
1000000
1
999938.0
0.9999
0.500031
0.500153
0.5002
1
62
0.00006
28.0
0.4516
0.000048
0.000122
1.9613
2
34
0.00003
14.0
0.4118
0.000027
0.000074
2.1647
3
20
0.00002
4.9
0.2450
0.000018
0.000047
2.3300
4
15.1
0.00002
4.1
0.2715
0.000013
0.000029
1.9238
5
11
0.00001
4.5
0.4091
0.000009
0.000016
1.4545
6
6.5
0.00001
4.5
0.6923
0.000004
0.000007
1.1154
7
2
0.00000
0.0
0.0000
0.000002
0.000003
1.5000
8
2
0.00000
2.0
1.0000
0.000001
0.000001
0.5000
9
0
0.00000
0
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

Calculations
Life expectancy is calculated in following steps.
Step 1: We first calculate (lx) as:
(i)                For the first age group its always 1.
For example for the age (x)=0, and nx =1,000,000 the (lx)=1.
(ii)     For the next interval, (x) =1, and nx+1= 62, the (lx+1) is calculated by unitary method, i.e. if 142 individuals are 1 in proportion, 62 will have how many?
(lx) for 1000000 = 1
(lx+1) for 62…..??
(lx+1) for 62 = 1x62/1000000 = 0.00006

Step 2: Now we calculate dx as: [nx-(nx+1)]
For example,           (x) =0, and nx =1000000; and (x) =1, and nx+1= 62
dx as: [nx-(nx+1)] = 100000-62= 999938.0.

Step 3: Now we calculate qx as: {dx/ nx}
For example,                  (x) =0, and nx =1000000; dx = 999938.0,
qx = 999938.0/1000000= 0.9999

Step 4: Now we calculate Lx as: {lx + lx+1/2}
For example,            (x) =0, and nx =1000000; (lx) for 1000000 = 1
(x) =1, and nx+1 =62, (lx+1) for 62= 0.00006,
Therefore,                Lx = {lx + lx+1/2} = {(1+0.00006)/2}= 0.500031
and,                Lx+1 = {lx+1 + lx+2/2} = {(0.00006+0.00003)/2}= 0.000048
Step 4: Now we calculate Tx as: {Tx(n) + Lx(n-1)}
To calculate Tx, start from bottom,
for (x9)=9, nx+8 =0, Tx is also 0, i.e. Tx9=0
For (x8) =8, nx8 =2, Tx8 =  {Tx9 + Lx8}
i.e. Tx8 = (0 + 0.00001) = 0.00001

Let’s take another reading,
For (x7) =7, nx7 =2, Tx7 =  {Tx8 + Lx7}
i.e. Tx8 = (0.00001 + 0.00002) = 0.00003 and so on.

Step 5: Calculate life expectancy as 𝑒x = (𝑇𝑥/ l𝑥)
For example for the age (x) =0, (lx) =1 and Tx1= 0.5015
𝑒x = (𝑇𝑥/ l𝑥) = (0.5015/1) = 0.502
Step 6: Proceed further for calculations similar to this and then draw survivorship curve graph on the semi-log graph by plotting Age (years) on X-axis and lx on Y-axis.
The graph plotted against the lifespan (Age or Years) and lx on X-axis and Y-axis respectively has represented the life table of Barnacle and depicted a Type III or Concave type curve. Hence, by using the data of life tables we can predict the history pattern, size or developmental stages of the species.
  


Life insurance companies and state government municipal communities collect birth and death records of humans and with the collected data construct the Human life tables.
A very potential application of life table is the comparison of history trends between the population and within the population is possible.
Life tables illustrate three types of survivorship curves which help in understanding the mortality, pattern of survival in the observed population and also the growth and decline of future population.
Survivorship curve
Survivorship curves are generally produced from the data of cohort life tables for a particular population and these curves depicts the age specific mortality. These curves represent that in each phase of life cycle what are the number of surviving individuals per thousand of a population.
Survival curves are drawn on semi-log graph where X and Y axis represents the Lifespan (age, years) and number of surviving individuals per thousand of population on algorithm scale respectively. Generally these survivorship curves are in frequent use by ecologists- Type I, Type II and Type III. These curves are standards and used to compare with the real life survivorship curves of different organisms: (a) Convex type curve, (b) linear curve and (c) Concave type curve.

a.                 Convex type curve or Type I
Populations capable of living their physiological life span are Type I or convex type of curve. They show high survivorship rate throughout life and low survivorship curve in later stages when upto 75% of life span is complete i.e. high mortality in old ages. It’s a characteristic pattern in many mammals, like humans, and sheep.
Figure 2: Convex type or Type I survivorship curve obtained from the life table data between age (x) and (lx).

b.                 Linear curve or Type II curve
These curves represent uniform age specific survival throughout life in organism. Adult stages of many birds and rodents show this type of curve. In mice, rabbits and many birds the high mortality rate in young one but constant rate in adults attributed to slightly sigmoid or slightly concave curve. A staircase survivorship curve is an indication of different survival rates at different stages by homometabolous insects.
Figure 3: Linear type or Type II survivorship curve obtained from the life table data between age (x) and (lx).

c.                 Concave type curve or Type III curve
Concave curve is a survivorship curve represented by many organisms such as fishes, oysters, many insects and shellfishes. It is curve for organisms with high reproduction rate in early life and dies off quickly after reproduction. Those individuals who sustain 25% of their lifespan tend to have slow death rate. For example in oyster, the early larval stages are more prone to predation therefore high mortality rate is there initially but those who survived reaches their adult stages and live longer.
Figure 4: Concave type or Type III survivorship curve obtained from the life table data between age (x) and (lx).


Mortality curve
The rate of mortality plotted against age during age intervals gives mortality curve. Plotted graph has time/year/age on X-axis and “qx” on Y-axis. It has two phrases in Type I a high mortality phase or juvenile phase and a post juvenile phase where rate of mortality first decreases as age increase and then increases with age. It forms a J-shaped curve.

Figure 5: J-shaped Mortality curve obtained from the life table data between age (x) and (qx).


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